COVID-19 is back in the global spotlight, with recent spikes in cases reported across Asia and beyond. As of June 9, India is grappling with 6,491 active cases, with Kerala, Gujarat, West Bengal, and Delhi most affected. While hospitalizations remain low and most cases are mild, the Indian government has ramped up surveillance, testing, and hospital preparedness in response to the rise.
New Variants and the Risk of Resurgence
India has recently detected new subvariants, including NB.1.8.1 and LF.7, though the dominant strain remains JN.1, known for its high transmissibility but generally mild symptoms. The World Health Organization (WHO) has also flagged NB.1.8.1 as a Variant Under Monitoring, highlighting its rapid spread across 22 countries but noting no evidence of increased severity so far.
Why Should East Africa Pay Attention?
The latest global surge is not limited to India. WHO reports that test positivity rates have climbed to 11% worldwide, the highest since July 2024, with increases concentrated in the Eastern Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and Western Pacific regions. Given the interconnectedness of today’s world, East Africa is not immune to these trends. The presence of highly transmissible variants elsewhere raises the risk of importation and local flare-ups.
Lessons in Preparedness: India’s Response
India’s approach offers valuable lessons:
i) Increased Surveillance and Testing: Authorities have mandated testing for all patients with symptoms of influenza-like illness, acute respiratory infection, or severe acute respiratory infection. If rapid tests are negative, RT-PCR is required.
ii) Hospital Readiness: Mock drills have assessed the availability of oxygen, isolation beds, ventilators, and medicines. Hospitals are following updated guidelines for managing COVID-19 and influenza symptoms.
iii) Protecting the Vulnerable: The elderly, those with chronic illnesses, immunocompromised individuals, pregnant women, and unvaccinated children are urged to take extra precautions, such as mask-wearing and avoiding crowded spaces.
Vaccine Effectiveness and the Need for Ongoing Research
Recent studies show that vaccines updated for newer variants like JN.1 continue to offer protection, though their effectiveness is slightly reduced against some sublineages. For example, the XBB.1.5 vaccine showed 41% effectiveness in adults aged 18–59 and 50% in those aged 60–85 against JN.1 infection. This underscores the importance of ongoing vaccine development and public-private partnerships to ensure readiness for future waves.
WHO’s Shift in Strategy
WHO has updated its guidance, moving away from lockdowns and blanket travel bans. Instead, it recommends targeted, evidence-based responses: early variant detection, focused vaccination campaigns, and strong public communication. The emphasis is now on integrating COVID-19 management into routine health systems, rather than treating it as an exceptional emergency.
What Should East Africa Do Now?
i) Strengthen Surveillance: Rapid detection and sequencing of new variants are crucial.
ii) Protect the Vulnerable: Continue public health messaging and targeted vaccination for high-risk groups.
iii) Bolster Health System Preparedness: Ensure hospitals have adequate supplies and protocols in place.
iv) Combat Misinformation: Clear, authoritative communication is essential to counteract rumors and promote evidence-based practices.
The Bottom Line
While the current surge in COVID-19 cases is driven by more transmissible but largely mild variants, the situation remains dynamic. East African health authorities and communities should remain vigilant, drawing on lessons from India and global best practices to stay ahead of potential outbreaks. As Dr. Sylvia Karpagam warns, “We need a public health system that is prepared… that system of prevention and preparedness is not at all there”. The time to invest in readiness is now—before the next wave arrives.
