Dubai, June 23, 2025
In the shimmering waters of the Persian Gulf, tankers navigate cautiously, their crews alert to the growing threat of the Iran-Israel conflict disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage carrying a fifth of the world’s oil. As the war enters its 11th day, Iran’s threats to choke this vital trade artery have sent ripples through global supply chains, even as oil prices hold steady—for now.
Iranian lawmakers debated shutting the Strait in retaliation for Israeli and U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities, a move U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called “economic suicide” for Tehran. “We have options to keep the Strait open,” Rubio told reporters, as the U.S. urged China to pressure Iran (Reuters). Brent crude futures dipped 0.29% to $76.79 a barrel, but analysts warn a closure could catapult prices past $100, hammering economies worldwide (Reuters).
The conflict’s regional toll is already mounting. In southern Israel, Iranian missiles knocked out power to 8,000 homes, and the closure of Israel’s main airport has snarled air cargo and passenger travel (Wall Street Journal). Neighboring Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestine face economic strain, with trade routes under pressure (ANERA). In Iraq, oil companies evacuated staff, bracing for spillover violence (The Hindu).
The IMF has sounded alarms, projecting a 40% chance of a U.S. recession this year if energy prices spike, a scenario that could cripple global trade (IMF World Economic Outlook). An X post from jacksonhinklle underscored Iran’s resolve to dictate the conflict’s terms, adding uncertainty to shipping forecasts. “The Strait is the world’s economic lifeline,” said Dubai-based logistics expert Faisal Al-Mansoori. “Any disruption would be catastrophic.”
For now, tankers sail on, but the global trade system holds its breath, knowing a single misstep in the Gulf could unleash chaos far beyond the Middle East.
