NAIROBI, KENYA – A sweeping new tariff regime announced by US President Donald Trump, which could see levies on exports to the United States soar as high as 70%, is causing deep anxiety across Africa. The move threatens to upend decades of established trade policy and could effectively dismantle the cornerstone of US-Africa trade, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
While President Trump’s aggressive “America First” rhetoric has been a staple of his presidency, this latest measure, set to take effect on August 1, represents a significant escalation. According to media reports, formal notifications are imminent, with Trump stating that countries will “start to pay” next month.
For African exporters who have long relied on the duty-free access granted by AGOA for a wide range of goods, the announcement casts a dark cloud of uncertainty. AGOA, which is set to expire in September 2025, has been credited with creating hundreds of thousands of jobs on the continent, particularly in the textile, apparel, and automotive sectors.
The new tariffs, however, operate on a “reciprocal” basis that many analysts believe will override AGOA’s preferential treatment. In a preview of what might come, the Trump administration slapped hefty tariffs on a number of African nations in April of this year. Lesotho, whose textile industry is heavily dependent on the US market, was hit with a staggering 50% tariff. Other nations, including Madagascar (47%) and the economic powerhouse of South Africa (31%), were also targeted.
“AGOA is finished. It is dead in the water,” Alex Owino, a former advisor to Kenya’s Treasury, told Africa Confidential, reflecting a growing sentiment among regional economists.
The impact of these tariffs could be devastating. In countries like Kenya, where the apparel sector has flourished under AGOA, accounting for over 67% of total exports to the US in 2022, the risk of widespread job losses is now a stark reality. Similarly, South Africa’s highly developed automotive industry, a major exporter to the US, faces a severe threat to its competitiveness.
African leaders have been quick to voice their concerns. At the recent US-Africa Business Summit in Angola, officials called for an urgent review of the tariffs. “What is needed is more trade between Africa and the US, not less,” stated Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank (AfDB).
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, echoed this, urging the removal of “punitive tariffs” and calling for a partnership based on investment and mutual respect, rather than aid.
The White House has yet to release a comprehensive list of which countries or specific goods will fall under the highest 70% tariff bracket. This lack of clarity has only intensified the apprehension, leaving businesses and governments unable to plan for the future. While the US is reportedly developing a new “template” for trade with the continent, details remain scarce, and a July 9 deadline for negotiating exemptions is fast approaching.
As the global markets react to the uncertainty, with Asian and European shares declining, African economies find themselves in a particularly vulnerable position. The potential loss of preferential access to a critical market, combined with the global economic instability Trump’s policy may trigger, presents a formidable challenge to the continent’s growth prospects. For millions of Africans whose livelihoods are tied to this trade, the coming weeks will be a period of anxious waiting to see if their nations will be forced to “start to pay.”
